Prediction: Oil prices will spike in the near term with continued global unrest and a greater focus on speculation. The speculation component in oil prices will have an effect on the volatility and not the underlying price. Therefore, the price for crude will have much wider swings in price. Global unrest will not evaporate as a concern and any strike on Iran will send prices into the stratosphere. The good news is that new reserves are being discovered in friendly parts of the world (Greenland, Brazil etc.). Also, Canadian tar sands only run $45 a barrel to produce and oil shale in America will likely play a role within the next 3-5 years. In a nutshell, crude should be at no more than $65 a barrel when the dust settles.
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Jim Sutliff